Fill up today, or wait?
A daily Vancouver gas price forecast — three signals, one verdict.
Fill up today — prices likely to jump ~3¢/L by Thursday.
+3¢/L expected over the next ~3 days · Today's Vancouver median: 205¢/L
Vancouver's weekly pattern (last 90 days)
Lower bars = cheaper days. Vancouver's weekly cycle is mild — day-of-week gaps are usually small, and refinery or wholesale-rack moves matter more than the calendar.
Why this verdict?
Vancouver's mild weekly pattern adds ~3.0¢.
- Weekly cycle: +3.0¢
- 7d vs 21d trend: -0.2¢
- WTI crude (5d): 0.0¢ — now $84.38 USD/bbl
- wholesale rack (5d): 0.0¢
As of Jul 28, 2026, 12:25 p.m.
What's driving today's call
The predictor blends four signals. Two are local (Vancouver's 7-day trend and its mild weekly pattern), two are upstream commodities that pass through to the pump with a known lag.
How the prediction is built
- Weekly cycle (a light weight in Vancouver). We compute the median Vancouver price for each day of the week from the last 90 days. Vancouver's weekly pattern is mild, so this signal nudges rather than drives the verdict.
- Trend. 7-day moving average vs 21-day moving average. If the short average is above the long average, prices are climbing — and we project 60% of that move forward over three days.
- WTI crude. Roughly $1/barrel translates to ~0.85¢/L at the Canadian pump, with a 5–10 day lag. We look at the change in the past 5 days.
- Vancouver wholesale rack. The dominant local signal: pump prices typically follow rack moves within 1–3 days, and this market's rack swings on refinery turnarounds, pipeline allocation and West Coast import economics. A rack spike overnight is one of the strongest "fill today" signals.
Each component returns a signed cents-per-litre value. We add them up, classify the total against simple thresholds, and call it. The model is intentionally simple — it's a heuristic, not a black-box ML model.
FAQ
Does Vancouver have a weekly cheap day like other cities?
Barely. Cities like Toronto and Calgary run a strong Edgeworth cycle — a sharp midweek jump, then a slow drift down. Vancouver's weekly pattern is mild: the spread between the cheapest and most expensive day of the week is usually a cent or two. Here the market moves on supply news — Vancouver wholesale rack changes, Burnaby refinery turnarounds, Trans Mountain allocation and Pacific Northwest import cargoes — so the rack and trend signals carry most of the weight in our model.
How accurate is this prediction?
We give you a verdict and a confidence meter (out of 5). High confidence means all four signals (weekly cycle, recent trend, WTI crude, wholesale rack) point the same direction. Low confidence means the signals disagree. We tune the thresholds based on how the forecast plays out. Treat it as a strong nudge, not a guarantee — geopolitics and refinery outages can override it.
What's the 'rack price'?
The wholesale price paid by gas stations to fuel terminals — posted for the Vancouver terminal every morning. Vancouver's rack typically runs 15–25¢/L above Edmonton's because coastal BC relies on the Burnaby refinery, the Trans Mountain pipeline and US imports. When the rack jumps overnight, retail prices typically follow within 24 hours, so a rack spike is one of the strongest 'fill today' signals.
Where does the data come from?
Pump prices: scraped hourly from public Vancouver station feeds. WTI crude: free FRED API from the St. Louis Fed (series DCOILWTICO). Wholesale rack: Petro-Canada's public daily terminal postings for Vancouver, with NRCan wholesale data as a fallback. All sources are free and open.
Can I get email alerts?
Yes — set up free alerts on our Gas Price Alerts page. Choose a daily 'fill up or wait' email that lands on mornings when prices look set to jump, or a price-drop alert when Vancouver's cheapest gas hits a target you pick. Confirm your email once and you're set.
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